## Sunday, March 08, 2009

### Responding to the global crisis

In recent weeks, Percy Mistry wrote four pieces in Financial Express analysing present and potential responses to the global crisis. These are best read as an integrated piece.

The 1st part in the article presumes that we would still be where we are without Gov intervention, precisely what I don't think so. Govt intervention is still keeping us afloat to an extent, without which we would have probably have sunk by now. This is what is I feel.

2. i think so too, govt intervention has provided some downside cushion.

3. Yeah, Since I work for an Investment bank, I know, the cushion was pretty good. I and millions other would have been sitting idle by now, thereby consuming much lesser than what we are now, thereby contributing to the cycle..
About the auto Industry, I really don't think there was any premature capitalization, they just saved us at right time. We really cannot estimate the catastrophe that would have come with GM,Chrysler and the suppliers of these industries going down, can we?

4. Ajay, I have sent you a mail.

My very personal takes on Chikki and Yogs is this:

Imagine, it is 2009[yes it is] and the bull market is still scorching hot and making new highs every moment. Do you think, that this problem would have come up on int'l consciousness?

We are forgetting one thing, but it is this: Its the financial markets which wag the economic tail and not the other way round.

So the first salvo is: Bailouts don't work because markets are not approving it. End of Story.

The second if of course, this: This is a bursting of credit bubble and accept it or not, credit is like drugs:It gives you a high but leaves you with a hangover. So how come, or rather how can somebody believe that, they are going to simulate back the 'high' by infusing more credit. Recessions and Downturns are natural ways to cleanse the system of bad B.S credit.
Govt. Intervention is a myth. As Mistry said, they don't know a thing and because everybody expects them to do something, they are in the mode of "Okay lets see if this works... whoops!"
For anymore "Govt.-knows-it" baloneys, just review the statements of Bernanke, Volcker and others as the crisis unfolded. Since late 2007 to now.

Soham

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